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  • Position : Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Sri Lanka to the Russian Federation
  • Affiliation : Embassy of Sri Lanka to the Russian Federation
  • Position : Chairman of the Executive Board
  • Affiliation : PIR Center
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International Security Index iSi decreased to 2812 points. Jayatilleka, Buzhinsky comment events of the week.

16.04.2013

MOSCOW, APRIL 16, 2013. PIR PRESS - “Syrian crisis is among the main negative trends of the period. The Syrian state and armed forces have succeeded in denying its enemies and their backers the rapid victory that the latter expected. By protracting the struggle and creating a situation of rough equilibrium or a hurting stalemate, the Syrian regime has scored, and shown that it cannot be kept out of any settlement. Negotiations with the opposition are essential in the national interest. This may enable some common middle ground to be identified”, - former Ambassador, Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Colombo, Dayan Jayatilleka.

During the week of April 8 - 15, 2013, the International Security Index iSi decreased to 2812 points. On the Korean Peninsula a sharp tension has remained. South Korean authorities reported that they have information about preparation of the new nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches by North Korea. In Syria, the army took control over the southern province of Deraa and strategic heights in Homs, the fighting with the rebels continued in the suburbs of Damascus. In the south-east of Turkey there were clashes between Kurds and Turkish Islamists. Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad resigned due to differences with President Mahmoud Abbas. In Mali, the French troops began an offensive against the militants of Al-Qaeda in the north of the country. In the military prison of Guantanamo there were clashes between prisoners and guards. Terrorist attacks occurred in Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Serbia, the authorities rejected an agreement proposed by European Union on the normalization of relations with Kosovo. In Venezuela the president election were held. In Iran, the powerful earthquake killed more than 20 people.

Comments on the week's events by members of the International Expert Group of the PIR Center

Dayan Jayatilleka (Sri Lanka), Ambassador, former Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Colombo – by e-mail from Colombo: Regionally, in South Asia, the situation has deteriorated. This is due to the aggravated situation in Afghanistan in the spring. Despite the declaration that the Taliban does not exist anymore as a single united force, I would have said the opposite. The situation is affected negatively by the continued strength of the Taliban as the US has no choice but to proceed with withdrawal. Negative impact on security system of South Asia had the situation in the neighboring Middle East.

Syrian crisis is among the main negative trends of the period. The Syrian state and armed forces have succeeded in denying its enemies and their backers the rapid victory that the latter expected. By protracting the struggle and creating a situation of rough equilibrium or a hurting stalemate, the Syrian regime has scored, and shown that it cannot be kept out of any settlement. Negotiations with the opposition are essential in the national interest. This may enable some common middle ground to be identified. It may enable the genuinely patriotic and realistic elements of the opposition to move out of the embrace of the militants Islamists and outright allies of Western military interventionism. It may enable creative and pragmatic new solutions to emerge. 

Globally, the security situation has been positively impacted upon, by the choice of John Kerry as US Secretary of State, because it sends a signal that the realistic and rational-minded elements have the upper hand in US foreign policy and strategic decision making in the recent four years.

Evgeny Buzhinsky (Russia), PIR Center Senior Vice President, Lieutenant General (Retired)  by phone from Moscow: An important event of the passed period was the fact that the U.S. abandoned the fourth phase of the European missile defense system in favor of strengthening missile defenses in the Pacific region. This happened due to the threats emanating from Pyongyang. The decision of Americans to adjust plans for the European segment of the global missile defense system is a very clear signal of Washington's readiness to compromise with Russia. By and large, it were SM-3 Block II B-s with potential to intercept ICBMs, deployed in Poland, that were causing the main concern of Russia. I am confident that the Russian-American consultations on missile defense scheduled for May might take the situation out of the impasse.

Without a doubt the most positive event which recently took place was the summit of BRICS in Durban. Despite the fact that no breakthrough decisions were made, the fact that the leaders of the BRICS countries are going to continue the process of integration is a very positive achievement for the multi polar world.

For all the questions concerning the International Security Index please contact Galiya Ibragimova by e-mail ibragimova at pircenter.org

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